The 362th Wenlan Financial Forum

Abstract：

How do global and domestic investors process institutional signals in emerging markets? We construct a high-frequency measure of marketization surprises by comparing China's refined-oil price adjustments with formula-implied benchmarks, yielding an objective indicator of reform intensity from 2013 to 2025. Using event-study approaches with Kalman-filter decomposition, we document three new facts. First, observable marketization surprises generate opposite responses across markets: a 1% marketization surprise triggers $3 billion in equity outflows and $1 billion in bond outflows from international investors, while domestic stock-index futures prices rise (e.g., CSI~300 by 0.06%). Second, latent institutional signals exhibit distinct information-processing structures: international flows load on two unobservable factors---a bond-dominant and a passive-dominant factor---whereas domestic markets load on a single factor, with near-zero cross-market correlation. Third, international responses amplify over quarterly horizons, while domestic effects dissipate immediately. Together, these results uncover persistent cross-market segmentation in how institutional reforms are interpreted and highlight the role of heterogeneous information processing in emerging-market asset pricing.

Speaker Introduction：

Ziyan Yang holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Maryland. She is currently an Associate Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Economics, Xiamen University. Her research focuses on institutional economics, and her work has been published in leading academic journals such as Management World and the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. She has been awarded the Provincial Outstanding Achievement Award in Social Sciences on multiple occasions.Professor Yang has led several major research projects, including the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) General Program, the NSFC Young Scientists Program, the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Program, and the Fujian Social Sciences Planning Key Project on Marxist Theory Research and Development. Independently drafted policy recommendations by her have been adopted on several occasions by the General Office of the Fujian Provincial Committee and have received affirmative feedback from provincial and ministerial-level leadership.In teaching, she leads a National First-Class Undergraduate Course development project. Her achievements include winning the first prize in the National Teaching Achievement Award, the third prize in the National College Teaching Innovation Competition, and the first prize in the Fujian Provincial College Teaching Innovation Competition.