The 253^rd Wenlan Financial Forum

Abstract:
The global industrial chain reshaping trend has one main line and three auxiliary lines. Among them, China-US relations are the main line, and digital technology, the impact of the epidemic and climate change are the auxiliary lines. The main line is interspersed with the auxiliary lines, which makes its manifestations different and more complex; at the same time, the more complex auxiliary lines increase the areas of China-US conflict. First, by analyzing the industrial chains of ten countries such as the United States and Germany, we have obtained the paradox of national industrial chains: the global competitiveness of a certain industrial chain in a country is related to the country's complete autonomy and controllability of this industrial chain, and it may be difficult to have both. Secondly, from the perspective of the exclusion and extension of US tariffs on China, it is currently necessary to increase the bilateral tariff exclusion rate between China and the US, push forward the reduction of bilateral tariffs, and improve the interaction between China and the US. At the same time, in the game between China and the United States in the global industrial chain, we must accurately understand the new trend of China-US technological competition and the position of China. Finally, from the perspective of out-migration, in-migration and regional restructuring of the industrial chain, we found that the Chinese market still has an important attraction for foreign companies, and foreign companies have gradually shifted from export sales to more domestic sales. In the restructuring of the industrial chain, China is still the fulcrum of an important production network. China needs to start from the perspective of the paradox of the national industrial chain, seize the main line, and adhere to the widest opening.

Speaker Introduction:
Qiyuan Xu, Ph.D. in economics, researcher, doctoral supervisor, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Deputy Director of the International Finance Research Center. His main research areas are Chinese macroeconomic policy and international finance. The doctoral dissertation was rated as "National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation" by the Ministry of Education and the Academic Degrees Committee of the State Council, and was selected twice into the National Special Support Program for High-level Talents. He has published more than 60 papers in academic journals, 10 academic monographs and 2 translations. In terms of policy research, one monograph was rated as the "Excellent National Think Tank Report" by China Social Science Press in 2020. He has won the special prize once and the first prize twice of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Excellent Information Strategy Award.